ZWF: Abortion was the big winner in last week's elections
Zander's Weekend Facts #92: Sunday, November 12, 2023
Inside this week’s edition of Zander’s Weekend Facts, recapping last week’s elections that took place across the country, and a look at what Zander’s been reading this past week. Plus, a compilation of the top headlines you need to know about from the last seven days.
Also, go listen to the latest episode of the Zander’s Facts podcast! Episode 122 features a guide to last Tuesday’s elections taking place across the United States. Download the Zander’s Facts podcast wherever you get your podcasts!
Here are Zander’s Weekend Facts for Sunday, November 12, 2023:
What Tuesday’s elections tell us about 2024
It wasn't a presidential election year, but voters across the country still turned out to vote last week.
In a week that started pretty poorly for Democrats (a New York Times/Siena College poll found some not-so-great news for President Joe Biden), that tune quickly changed by the time results started pouring in on Tuesday night.
In Ohio, voters approved two amendments to the state constitution that legalized the sale and possession of marijuana, along with enshrining the right to an abortion in writing. (Although, Ohio Republicans now appear intent on making sure the will of the voters get denied.)
In Kentucky, incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection against Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, winning by five points in a state former President Donald Trump captured by 26% in 2020.
Mississippi’s gubernatorial election saw Democrat Brandon Presley come within five points of incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves, the closest a Democrat has come in the state’s governor’s race since 1999.
A Supreme Court election in Pennsylvania saw Democrat Daniel McCaffery beat Republican nominee Carolyn Carluccio by almost seven points, flipping the seat and giving Democrats a 5-2 majority on the state’s high court.
Then in Virginia, Democrats held on to their majority in the state Senate and flipped the House of Delegates to fully control the General Assembly. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin had been hoping to install Republican majorities to help pass a 15-week abortion ban.
So the big winners in Tuesday’s most highlighted races? Democrats, and the policies they support.
Voters denied any Republican plans to restrict abortion in Virginia, the last southern state in the country that has not heavily restricted access to reproductive medical treatments. They voted specifically to support them in Ohio. And voters in Kentucky chose a pro-choice Democrat to lead them for the next four years. (Although a GOP supermajority in the state legislature has banned abortions.)
Does that tell us who will win the key races that will be on the ballot next year? No, but they do serve as a better indicator than year-out polling.
While President Biden has been performing extremely poorly in recent polls, Democrats have continued to overperform when voters actually cast their ballots. FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich found that Democrats have been outperforming in the special elections that have taken place since the 2022 midterm elections by an average of nine points. In the run-up to the 2020 elections, that number was four points in favor of the Democrats.
Of course, neither special election results, polling, nor off-year elections are the perfect indicators of what will happen in the presidential election. A lot can occur in the next 12 months. So while polling might make you write President Biden off for next year, actual election results (and his potential opponent) may make you think otherwise.
It’s going to be a very exciting election year!
For more information on this week’s top story, here’s an article from The New York Times - How Abortion Lifted Democrats, and More Takeaways From Tuesday’s Elections
What Zander’s been reading
The science says that teenagers are falling asleep later. So why are many schools across the country starting classes as early as 7:00 am? An NPR affiliate in Nashville discovered both sides of the argument behind shifting start times later in the morning.
Check out this week’s featured article at NPR - Science says teens need more sleep. So why is it so hard to start school later? - (Apple News link)
Rapid-fire Facts
These are top news headlines from the past week in rapid-fire fashion:
Government Shutdown: A 45-day continuing resolution passed in September to fund the federal government is expected to expire this coming Friday. On Saturday, House Republican leadership unveiled their plan to continue funding the government, a two-step continuing resolution that does not include any budget cuts or foreign aid to Israel. The approach, which would fully keep the government open until January 19, has universal opposition from Democrats and has drawn the ire of several Republicans. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can only afford to lose four Republican votes if no Democrats vote to approve. If no agreement is reached with Congress and the White House, the government will shut down on Friday night.
Joe Manchin: Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced on Thursday that he would not seek reelection for his U.S. Senate seat next year. Manchin is the only Democrat currently elected statewide in West Virginia, a state former Republican President Donald Trump won by almost 39 points in 2020. Current Republican Governor Jim Justice is running for the seat and is expected to be the favorite to win in next year’s election. Manchin’s announcement means Democrats must retain Senate seats in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in order to remain in control of the chamber. The party’s best opportunities to pick up a GOP-held seat would likely reside in Florida and Texas.
Actors’ Strike: The Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) came to an agreement with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers to end the nearly four-month-long actors’ strike last week. The SAG-AFTRA national board approved the deal on Friday, which will go to the union’s membership for final approval. The deal comes over one month after the writers union reached a deal to end their own strike. SAG-AFTRA’s deal includes a seven percent increase in general wages along with rules regarding the use of artificial intelligence and an actor’s likeness.
Supreme Court Gun Case: The Supreme Court heard arguments in a case challenging a law banning those under domestic violence orders from owning a gun last week. While the court has previously ruled in favor of gun rights, determining in June that the right to carry a firearm in public for self-defense is constitutional, the justices appeared likely to uphold the existing law restricting guns for domestic abusers. Only two of the court’s justices, Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, appeared skeptical of the current law. A ruling is expected to be made in the case by June 2024.
Portugal Prime Minister: Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa resigned on Tuesday after his home was searched in connection to a corruption investigation. The investigation is part of a probe into alleged concessions that were awarded by the Portuguese government for lithium mines and hydrogen production. Costa claimed he had not been named a suspect. Portugal’s Infrastructure Minister João Galamba had previously been indicted as part of the investigation. On Thursday, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced he was dissolving parliament and that the country would hold an early election in March.
Zander’s Facts Sporting Club
Here are the top headlines from the sports world in the Sporting Club:
NFL Week 10: The final international game of the season kicks off today’s NFL slate, with the Colts and Patriots facing off in Frankfurt, Germany at 9:30 am et on NFL Network. Moving to the afternoon, matchups between the Browns and Ravens, 49ers and Jaguars, and Saints and Vikings highlight the 1:00 pm et window. At 4:00 pm et, the Lions take on the Chargers, Commanders visit the Seahawks, and the Cowboys host the Giants. At 8:20 pm et, the Jets take on the Raiders, while the Broncos play the Bills on Monday night. Thursday night’s game saw the Bears beat the Panthers 16-13, with the two teams having combined for three total wins coming into the game.
College Football Week 11: While there were two top-10 matchups on Saturday’s college football slate, they didn’t exactly live up to the hype. While #10 Penn State kept #3 Michigan close, they ultimately lost 24-15, and #2 Georgia demolished #9 Ole Miss 52-17. In some other top-25 matchups, #5 Washington survived #18 Utah 35-28, and #14 Missouri blew out #13 Tennessee 36-7. Elsewhere, #4 Florida State held on against Miami 27-20, #21 Arizona beat Colorado 34-31, Texas Tech upset #16 Kansas 16-13, and #7 Texas took down TCU 29-26. Also, #1 Ohio State held firm against Michigan State 38-3, #22 Iowa shut out Rutgers 22-0, UCF destroyed #15 Oklahoma State 45-3, and #8 Alabama beat up Kentucky 49-21.
Michigan Football: The Big Ten Conference suspended the University of Michigan’s head football coach Jim Harbaugh for the final three games of the regular season on Friday. While Harbaugh will be allowed to coach the team during the week, he will be prohibited from roaming the sidelines during games. The suspension comes after the conference was made aware of an allegation involving a sign-stealing operation headed by Michigan staffer Connor Stalions. The university responded by requesting a temporary restraining order to let Harbaugh coach the final three games, but a hearing in the case won’t occur until Friday. #3 Michigan beat #10 Penn State on the road on Saturday 24-15 with Harbaugh watching from the team hotel nearby.
NWSL Championship: NY/NJ Gotham FC won their first NWSL title in franchise history by beating OL Reign 2-1 in Saturday night’s championship game. The match featured the final game in the storied careers of Ali Kreiger and Megan Rapinoe, who was subbed off after just six minutes due to an injury. Goals by Gotham’s Lynn Williams and Esther González in the first half were enough to get by a goal from OL Reign’s Rose Lavelle in the 29th minute. In other NWSL news, the league announced new television deals beginning next season with Amazon Prime Video, CBS Sports, ESPN, and Scripps Sports’ Ion network. The four-year deals are worth $240 million, a massive increase from CBS’ previous three-year exclusive deal with the league worth just $4.5 million.
MLS Cup Playoffs: Only one spot remains in the Conference Semifinal round of the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs. The Columbus Crew and Atlanta United will face off in Game 3 of their First Round series at 7:00 pm et today on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, with the winner facing Orlando City. The other Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup features FC Cincinnati and the Philadelphia Union. In the Western Conference, Sporting Kansas City will take on Houston Dynamo and LAFC face the Seattle Sounders. The winners of those one-game matchups will advance to the Conference Finals.
Wrapping up the Facts
Before this edition of Zander’s Weekend Facts wraps up, here’s another reminder to check out the latest episodes of the Zander’s Facts podcast. Download and listen to the latest episode of the podcast, along with every episode of Zander’s Facts, wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also listen to every episode of the podcast on this very website. All Zander’s Facts podcast episodes are now available on zandersfacts.com under the “Zander’s Facts” tab for your enjoyment! That includes the next episode of the Zander’s Facts Podcast, which comes out this Wednesday!
That’s a wrap on this week’s edition of Zander’s Weekend Facts. The facts in print return next Sunday, November 19, 2023.
