The fragility of the conference championship game
Zander's Weekend Facts #148 - Sunday, December 8, 2024
Coming into the first season of the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, I wasn’t really sure the purpose that conference championship games still served. That was until watching the final moments of Saturday night’s ACC title game.
#17 Clemson came into last night’s conference championship game as nearly three-point underdogs, despite having won seven of the last nine ACC championships, yet opened up a 17-point lead in the first half and even led by that amount in the fourth quarter. #8 SMU, having made the ACC Championship in their first season in the conference, stormed back in the second half, eventually tying the game up by scoring a touchdown with just 16 seconds left in regulation.
The Mustangs were so close to forcing an overtime where they had the momentum… until Clemson returned the ensuing kickoff to the 45-yard line, giving the Tigers’ offense a chance to get into field goal range. They did exactly that with a quick completion by Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik to receiver Antonio Williams to the SMU 38-yard line, giving kicker Nolan Hauser a chance from 56 yards to win the Atlantic Coast Conference and send Clemson to the CFP with an automatic conference championship spot.
Candidly, I’m not much of a Dabo fan, but it doesn’t get much better than that as a fan of college football. A true freshman kicking a career-long field goal to send his team into the College Football Playoff, just seconds after Clemson had thought their fate would be decided in another period of play. Sean McDonough’s two excellent play-by-play calls at the end of the game likely made the moment even more spectacular, the first time in FBS history a conference was won by a 50+ yard field goal. As a neutral college football fan (well, not really I suppose since I had Clemson +2.5) that was incredible to watch.
And now comes the big question: does SMU get into the Playoff?
You may remember the debate that surrounded last year’s CFP, which was the final edition to solely feature four programs. The College Football Playoff selection committee ultimately decided to include Alabama as the fourth team, ousting undefeated Florida State from the Playoff after their starting quarterback had gotten injured late in the season. (I certainly had my thoughts on that situation, which you can listen to below.)
125. College Football needs some serious help
The College Football Playoff selection committee may have chosen their four teams for this year’s Playoff, but they didn’t make the right decision.
The debate this time around certainly does not have the implications of one year ago. We’re talking about the 12th team to get into a 12-team Playoff who would have to win four straight games to win the National Championship instead of the fourth team to get into a four-team Playoff who would only have to win two consecutive games to capture the natty. Although, it is absolutely ironic that Alabama is the team at the center of both debates.
Here’s just a quick summary of the situation at hand:
The five highest-ranked conference champions automatically gain entry into the Playoff, with those almost certain to be ACC champion Clemson, Big 12 champion Arizona State, Big Ten champion Oregon, Mountain West champion Boise State, and SEC champion Georgia.
The remaining seven spots are at-large selections, given to the highest-ranked remaining teams. Given last week’s rankings, the teams that are considered locks to be included in the Playoff are Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, and Texas.
This leaves one spot remaining, with SMU, who was ranked #8 last week, up against #11 Alabama, who would have been the final at-large selection if last week’s rankings were the final ones of the season.
That brings us to the extensive arguments for both schools, condensed here for sanity:
Alabama: Beat the SEC champions this season and have a strength of schedule ranked 16th best in college football. However, finished with a 9-3 record that kept them out of the SEC Championship, with two of those losses coming to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, both of whom finished 6-6 this season. Their Oklahoma loss was by 21 points on the road.
SMU: Finished the season 11-2 with a three-point loss to BYU, ranked as high as #6 by the committee this season, and to Clemson in the ACC title game. However, they have no wins against teams currently ranked this season, they did beat Louisville and Pittsburgh when those two teams were ranked, and have a strength of schedule that is 60th in the country.
Now I’ll tell you right now that neither Alabama nor SMU, whichever team is included in the Playoff, will win the National Championship. They’ll likely struggle in their first round matchup against most likely the fifth-ranked team, which will likely be a road game versus Texas.
In the grand scheme of determining a national champion, which the Playoff is designed to do, it will likely matter little. Yet, the decision that the committee makes, which we will find out at noon ET this afternoon on ESPN, will say a whole lot about the state of college football.
In my humble opinion, it makes little reasonable sense to exclude SMU in favor of Alabama for the simple reason that you would be punishing the Mustangs for playing in a game that they earned their way into, while boosting a team that didn’t earn the right to play in their conference championship game. Is it harder to get into the SEC Championship Game than it is in the ACC? Undoubtedly. The SEC is the best conference in the sport.
Yet, many arguments in favor of placing three-loss SEC teams into the Playoff this season have rested on hypotheticals. “Oh, well Alabama would almost certainly destroy SMU if they played.” I’d say that considering Georgia, the champions of the SEC, needed eight overtimes just one week ago to beat Georgia Tech, the sixth-best team in the ACC this season, you really shouldn’t factor hypotheticals into your decision-making in this context.
But what does it say if the committee does choose Alabama instead of SMU? (Which, to be honest, I think they will do.) There were already those out there calling for SMU to simply forfeit the ACC Championship Game because a loss could exclude them from the Playoff. Excluding SMU then gives future teams the license to simply not participate in their conference championship game, for fear that a loss would punish them while benefiting teams that don’t qualify for their conference championships.
Even with the excitement of Clemson-SMU, and the thriller that was Georgia-Texas in the SEC Championship earlier in the day, I’m still not in love with the conference championship game. If this is the event that takes them off the calendar, I probably wouldn’t shed a tear, although I do understand why a team like Clemson, who wasn’t in the Playoff before this game and now is, would want them to remain. (The argument above remains, however, Clemson is not a serious contender for the National Championship.) With a 12-team Playoff, and potentially a 16-team Playoff in a few years’ time, where teams play three or four extra games to win the National Championship, the conference championship game almost seems unnecessary. The neutral sites don’t provide a great atmosphere, and first round Playoff games now being played at campus sites seems to be a positive trade-off.
So if Alabama is included at the expense of SMU, don’t be surprised if that marks the end of conference championship games. And while it likely won’t have a major impact on this year’s race for the championship, it will only continue the acceleration of college sports toward the inevitability of a super league that will only favor those raking in the riches.
For more information on this week’s top story, here’s an article from the Associated Press - An Oregon win, a Clemson upset, and ‘now what?’ for Alabama in the College Football Playoff
What Zander’s been reading
Compared to just a few decades ago, many neighborhoods across the U.S. now have far fewer grocery stores. This article in The Atlantic takes a look at the root causes of “food deserts” and what could be done to adequately address the problem.
Check out this week’s featured article in The Atlantic - The Great Grocery Squeeze
Zander’s Facts Sporting Club
Here are the latest headlines from the sports world in the Sporting Club:
NFL Week 14: An exciting NFC North showdown opened week 14 of the NFL season on Thursday night as the Lions edged by the Packers 34-31. Switching to Sunday, the 1:00 pm ET window is highlighted by Falcons-Vikings, Panthers-Eagles, and Browns-Steelers. In the 4:00 pm ET window, the Seahawks take on the Cardinals, the Bills face the Rams, and the 49ers host the Bears. At 8:20 pm ET, the Chargers travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Week 14 concludes on Monday night as the Bengals face off against the Cowboys at 8:15 pm ET.
College Football Conference Championships: The field for the College Football Playoff will be unveiled later today after college football concluded its conference championship weekend on Saturday. The Big 12 began the day with #15 Arizona State demolishing #16 Iowa State 45-19. In the SEC title game, #5 Georgia held on despite losing their starting quarterback to injury, beating #2 Texas 22-19 in overtime. #1 Oregon was able to stop #3 Penn State in the final minutes of the Big Ten Championship, winning 45-37, while #17 Clemson used a last-second field goal to beat #8 SMU 34-31. The final College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled later today at 12:00 pm ET on ESPN.
UEFA Champions League: The league phase of the UEFA Champions League returns this week with Matchday 6 as just three matches remain for each club before the league phase concludes. On Tuesday, the nine-match slate is highlighted by Bayer Leverkusen-Inter Milan, Atalanta-Real Madrid, and Shakhtar Donetsk-Bayern Munich. On Wednesday, notable matches include Borussia Dortmund-Barcelona, Juventus-Manchester City, and Arsenal-Monaco. Each match will kick off at either 12:45 pm ET or 3:00 pm ET and stream on Paramount+.
MLS Cup: The LA Galaxy won their sixth MLS Cup on Saturday with a victory in the league’s final game of the season. LA took down New York Red Bulls 2-1 in a matchup of two franchises that have existed throughout the league’s 29-year history. Goals from Joseph Paintsil and Dejan Joveljić in the first half were enough for LA to be crowned league champions for the first time since 2014. LA’s six MLS Cups are the most in league history, two more than D.C. United’s four.
WNBA Expansion: The WNBA held an expansion draft for the league’s newest franchise, the Golden State Valkyries, last week. The Valkyries selected 11 players who played on different teams last season, including Kate Martin of the Las Vegas Aces and the Indiana Fever’s Temi Fagbenle. Golden State begins play when the 2025 WNBA season commences in May. The name and logo of the league’s 14th franchise was also unveiled last week. The Toronto Tempo, the first Canadian team in the WNBA, will begin play in 2026.
Rapid-fire Facts
Here’s a recap of the top news headlines from the past week:
South Korea: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol survived an impeachment vote on Saturday in the country’s parliament. Yoon had imposed martial law on Tuesday, vowing to eliminate “anti-state” forces that control parliament and whom he accused of sympathizing with North Korea. Lawmakers quickly voted to reject military rule and the order was lifted on Wednesday. However, an impeachment vote against Yoon failed after many lawmakers boycotted the vote. The main opposition party declared that it will submit another impeachment motion later this week.
UnitedHealthcare CEO: The fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on Wednesday was “premeditated” and “premeditated” according to police. The shooting was caught on camera in midtown Manhattan on Wednesday morning, with police believing that the at-large suspect has since left New York City. UnitedHealthcare had been holding its annual investor conference in New York at the time.
French Government: French Prime Minister Michael Barnier resigned last week after losing a no-confidence vote in the country’s parliament. The events bring an end to the three-month-old government that had emerged in the wake of last summer’s parliamentary elections, which will now be the shortest in modern French history. French President Emmanuel Macron is now tasked with appointing a new prime minister, which will be difficult in a divided parliament. Macron himself has defied recent calls for his own resignation.
Syria Civil War: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled the capital of Damascus early Sunday, ending a 24-year rule over the Middle Eastern nation. A rebel offensive has made stunning gains in the country over the last week, entering Damascus on Saturday. al-Assad had been known for quelling any forms of dissent during his reign of the country. Rebels had taken control of the key Syrian city of Homs just hours before moving into Damascus, signaling the fall of al-Assad’s regime. The country’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, said he was prepared to cooperate with new leadership chosen by the Syrian people.
TikTok Ban: A federal appeals court upheld the impending ban on the social media platform TikTok in the United States last week. The court in its ruling agreed with the federal bill that imposed a ban on TikTok unless it is divested from ByteDance, its Chinese owner, because of national security concerns. TikTok has vowed to appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court. The law requires TikTok to be sold by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the U.S. However, President-elect Donald Trump has said he would save the platform, though the manner in which that would occur is unknown.
Wrapping up the Facts
That’s a wrap on this week’s edition of Zander’s Weekend Facts. The Facts in print return next Sunday, December 15, 2024.